As temperatures began to rise in California on Friday and again on Saturday, the manager of much of the state’s electric grid called on utilities to cut power to hundreds of thousands of customers.
But the rolling blackouts on those days left some of the state’s energy experts bewildered. They said that the utilities had plenty of power available and that the blackouts weren’t necessary. The grid’s capacity may be tested in coming days as temperatures are forecast to reach into the triple digits again in some places.
“They set it up like this is a historic event,” said Bill Powers, a San Diego engineer who provides expert testimony on utility matters before the state’s regulators. “This should not have triggered blackouts.”
The California Independent System Operator, the nonprofit entity that controls the flow of electricity for 80 percent of California, said it acted after three power plants shut down and wind power production dropped. It also cited a lack of access to electricity from out-of-state sources.
“We understand rolling outages are not easy, and we do everything we can to avoid them,” said Anne Gonzales, a spokeswoman for California ISO. “The reason for the energy shortfall is high heat and people naturally wanting to stay cool.”
The sweltering weather has smothered California, while wildfire season has started earlier than usual.
The energy experts noted that the peak electricity use over the weekend fell below peaks in other years, when utilities were able to handle the demand. They also said the operating reserves of power available to the utilities were higher than the 3 percent level where California ISO has traditionally ordered a reduction in electricity use.
The first rolling blackouts this time occurred on Friday, as temperatures reached 10 to 20 degrees above normal in California and other parts of the West. At 6:36 p.m., California ISO ordered its “Stage 3” action, where the utilities that are part of its electric grid network — primarily California’s three investor-owned power providers, Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric — cut power to some customers.
On Saturday, as temperatures returned to triple digits, the grid operator again began its emergency procedures.
The first-stage alert began at 6 p.m., when California ISO’s operating reserves stood at 12 percent, said David Marcus, an energy consultant and former adviser at the California Energy Commission. Its standard for the first stage had been 8 percent, according to the grid operator’s 2019 resource assessment.
The second stage began at 6:25 p.m., when its operating reserves stood at 9.59 percent, Mr. Marcus said. California ISO listed that stage in its assessment at 6 percent.
The final stage, 3, the rolling blackouts, began at 6:30 p.m., when operating reserves dipped to 8.9 percent but still above the 3 percent level that the operator listed last year, Mr. Marcus said.
“It’s just misleading to say that it was because it was a hot day,” Mr. Marcus said. “I think they were being overly cautious.”
Saturday’s peak demand, according to Mr. Marcus, reached 44,947 megawatts, much lower than the 46,797 he saw on Friday. But both of those amounts fell below the peak year for electricity use, 2006, when demand reached 50,270 megawatts, followed by 2017 with 50,116, according to data from California ISO.
As California ISO began taking its emergency actions on Saturday, electricity wholesale costs jumped on its energy market. The prices fluctuate based on how much electricity must pass through the wires. The more electricity that must get through a particular line, the higher the price, much like increased toll prices on a highway during traffic congestion.
Prices in locations near the Tahoe area across the state line to Reno and Carson City, Nev., spiked into the thousands of dollars per megawatt-hour, far above the typical costs of under $100.
Ms. Gonzales said the electric grid manager did not have an immediate response to questions about the energy prices because officials were responding to the emergency.
“But the ISO isn’t saying it’s congestion,” said Loretta Lynch, a former president of the California Public Utilities Commission. “They’re not saying a wire got burned down. It’s saying it’s a lack of power.”
In particular, California ISO said two natural gas power plants shut down on Friday and, on Saturday, a wind farm and another gas plant stopped producing power.
The state is currently reviewing proposals to extend the operation of old natural gas plants in Southern California. Environmentalists want the plants to remain closed because they use fossil fuels and are cooled using seawater, endangering marine life.
“It makes for a compelling story” if you have blackouts because of a lack of power plants, Mr. Powers said. “We know there is no capacity problem,” he said. “Something odd happened.”
What happens in the days ahead will continue to test Californians and the electric grid as California ISO forecast electricity demand Monday at near all-time peak levels.
“If there’s really a problem and not just the ISO jumping the gun, it’s going to manifest tomorrow,” Mr. Marcus said. “Tomorrow evening, the wolf arrives.”
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